Can President Donald Trump Launch a Nuclear Bomb Attack?

Discussion in 'Chit-Chat' started by ItuExchange, Nov 12, 2016.

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    Since there is no mechanism in the USA to stop President Trump from launching a nuke, what is the chance of it happening?

    There is a mechanism. He can't do it by himself. It requires the approval of another person, usually the Secretary of Defense, who holds a second and equally necessary set of codes. Also, the president doesn't personally launch them. The military might disobey the order if it constituted a war crime, such as striking first on a civilian population.

    Another answer: Based on past history there is about an 8.3% chance of President Trump launching a nuke.

    How do I get to that figure? Well only 12 U.S. Presidents have had the capability to launch a nuclear attack. 1 U.S. President has exercised that power.

    Of course, if we start taking into account the total number of world leaders who have had the power to personally launch a nuclear attack then the probability is much more difficult to calculate. With 7 other nations admitting to hold nuclear weapons (Russia, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India & North Korea) and 1 nation unilaterally recognised to hold them (Israel) and South Africa who have held them but have now decommisioned them. Several NATO countries share weapons but one assumes that they are not under control of a single person.

    So if we take 8 other countries who have had on average 8 leaders each ( I suspect the US policy of 8 year maximum terms give the US a higher than average number of leaders) then we get 76 leaders who could have launched nukes and still only 1 who has used them in anger.

    So we are down to about a 1.3% chance of Trump being the next leader to kick things off.

    Source: https://www.quora.com/Since-there-i...ing-a-nuke-what-is-the-chance-of-it-happening


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